Donald Trump will step out onto the campaign trail to an entirely new race and a political landscape once again irrevocably altered by an unprecedented election year.
The former US president’s rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Wednesday night (Thursday morning AEST) is his first since President Joe Biden abruptly ended his reelection bid on Sunday, setting off a chain of events that appears destined to end with Trump facing Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
Biden’s decision and Harris’ elevation has sent a surge of adrenaline through the Democratic Party and unleashed a wave of new donations to compete with Trump’s own strengthened financial position. Meanwhile, Trump and his campaign are working to reimagine a playbook and operation launched to take on an unpopular 81-year-old incumbent.
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In a campaign already marked by extraordinary events – a significant civil judgment against Trump, a felony conviction, an indictment dismissed and another delayed by a scandal in the Georgia prosecutor’s office, Biden’s confidence-shattering debate performance and an assassination attempt on the former president – the latest twist has plunged the presidential race deeper into uncharted territory.
Trump spent Tuesday reacting to his changed political fortunes. In a barrage of social media posts, the former president ripped into his likely new opponent, lamented that Republicans were forced “to waste a great deal of time and money” prior to the Democratic shake-up, suggested that the “Biden/Harris administration” was to blame for the assassination attempt on his life, criticised Democratic tributes to Biden (“He was pushed out of power like a dog”, the former president wrote) and ripped Fox News for giving airtime to the Democratic governor of Minnesota, a state Trump is targeting.
“They make me fight battles that I shouldn’t have to fight!” Trump said of the network.
Later, Trump held a call with reporters – the first of its kind this cycle – during which he tested new attack lines against Harris.
“As a result of her dangerously extreme immigration policies, the largest invasion in history is now taking place at our southern border, and it’s getting worse, not better,” said Trump, who has spent the past 19 months attacking Biden over the border while rarely mentioning Harris.
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The Democratic National Committee responded to the stepped-up attacks on Harris over immigration by highlighting Trump’s successful effort to kill a bipartisan immigration deal earlier this year.
Trump’s team insists it was prepared for a change at the top of the Democratic ticket long before Biden officially dropped out, pointing to an internal memo from May laying out scenarios that would result in an open convention and another Democrat as the nominee.
Senior Trump advisers continue to suggest that a campaign against Harris would largely centre on the same issues once used to criticise Biden: crime, immigration and inflation. As Biden’s second in command, Harris played a key role in shaping the administration’s approaches to those topics, they will argue.
However, some individuals close to Trump acknowledge the uncertainty brought on by Harris’ candidacy, specifically what new Democratic enthusiasm could mean for turnout in November.
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Already, Trump’s campaign is bracing for the fresh excitement over Harris to generate a bump for her in the polls, as laid out in an expectation-setting memo on Tuesday from Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio.
He predicted that Harris would start “gaining on or even leading President Trump” in the polls, though he also insisted that the “honeymoon” period would end.
Trump’s team faces a race against the clock to define Harris before she can fully turn the Biden election machine into her own campaign. Though polls suggest Harris is a recognisable figure, the Trump campaign remains convinced that the public doesn’t know much about her – referring to the gap as “name education”.
The campaign intends to spend the coming weeks trying to fill that knowledge void with as much negative information about Harris as it can.
Fabrizio in his memo previewed what the Trump campaign is expected to attack: Harris’ record in California as a prosecutor and state attorney general; her tie-breaking vote as vice president on the Inflation Reduction Act, a law Biden championed to boost investments to reverse climate change; and her response to the rise in migrant border crossings.
A source close to Trump also indicated that the campaign and its allies are planning to specifically highlight certain choices she made as San Francisco district attorney in an attempt to portray her as lenient on violent criminals.
“So, while the public polls may change in the short run and she may consolidate a bit more of the Democrat base, Harris can’t change who she is or what she’ done,” Fabrizio wrote.
The leading pro-Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc, launched a new 30-second spot Sunday, first shared on social media, showcasing another plan of attack.
https://twitter.com/MAGAIncWarRoom/status/1815096338335625505
The ad says Harris “covered up Joe Biden’s obvious mental decline” and features a clip of her praising Biden’s performance as president.
“Our president is in good shape, in good health, tireless, vibrant, and I have no doubt about the strength of the work that we have done,” Harris says in the clip.
The group, which has already spent $US77 million ($117 million) on ads boosting Trump so far, announced plans to air the ad in the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Trump’s appearance in Charlotte will provide his first opportunity to contrast himself with Harris before voters in a battleground state.
Four years ago, North Carolina produced Trump’s narrowest margin of statewide victory, and it was expected to be a top battleground again in 2024. But it was left off the list of states that the Biden campaign viewed as most winnable in a sobering post-debate assessment of the race.
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