Hurricane Milton is churning towards a potentially catastrophic collision along the west coast of Florida, where some residents have insisted they will stay after millions were ordered to evacuate and officials warned stragglers would face grim odds of surviving.
The Tampa Bay area, home to more than 3.3 million people, faced the possibility of widespread destruction after avoiding direct hits from major hurricanes for more than a century.
The National Hurricane Centre predicted Milton, a category 5 hurricane during much of its approach, would likely weaken but remain a major hurricane when it makes landfall late on Wednesday or early on Thursday (Thursday afternoon AEDT).
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“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” the centre warned.
Milton was centred about 485 kilometres south-west of Tampa early on Wednesday (late Wednesday AEDT) with maximum sustained winds of 260km/h, the hurricane centre reported. It was moving north-east at 22km/h and was expected to continue moving in that direction with an increase in its forward speed through Wednesday night (Thursday AEDT). It was expected to turn toward the east-northeast and east on Thursday and Friday.
Heavy rain was beginning to spread across parts of southwestern and west-central Florida ahead of Milton early on Wednesday, and weather conditions were expected to deteriorate across parts of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day, the centre said.
Fifteen to 31 centimetres of rain, with localised totals up to 46 centimetres, were expected across central to northern portions of Florida through Thursday, bringing the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and moderate to major river flooding. Several tornadoes were likely on Wednesday across parts of central and southern Florida.
Forecasters predicted the storm would retain hurricane strength as it crossed central Florida on Thursday on a path east toward the Atlantic Ocean. The hurricane’s precise track remained uncertain, as forecasters on Tuesday evening nudged its projected path slightly south of Tampa.
Thousands of fleeing cars clogged Florida’s highways ahead of the storm, but time for evacuations was running out on Wednesday. Tampa Mayor Jane Castor noted that up to 4.5 metres of storm surge forecast for her city would be deep enough to swallow an entire house.
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“So if you’re in it, basically that’s the coffin that you’re in,” Castor said.
Milton targets communities still reeling two weeks after Hurricane Helene flooded streets and homes in western Florida along its devastating march that left at least 230 dead across the South.
In the bayside town of Punta Gorda, about 160 kilometres south of Tampa, streets were still filled on Tuesday with 1.5-metre piles of soggy furniture, clothing, books, appliances and other rubbish dragged from damaged homes.
Many homes sat vacant, but accountant and art collector Scott Joiner remained on the second floor of the New Orleans-style home he built 17 years ago. Joiner said bull sharks swam in the flooded streets and a neighbour had to be rescued by canoe when Helene passed and flooded the first floor of his home.
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“Water is a blessing to have but it is very deadly,”Joiner said.
Joiner said he planned to go another round and ride out Milton, despite the risk.
Authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders across 11 Florida counties with a combined population of about 5.9 million people, according to US Census Bureau estimates.
Officials have warned that anyone staying behind must fend for themselves, as first responders are not expected to risk their lives attempting rescues at the height of the storm.
In Riverview, south of Tampa, several drivers waiting in a long line for fuel Tuesday said they had no plans to evacuate.
“I think we’ll just hang, you know — tough it out,” said Martin Oakes, of nearby Apollo Beach. “We got shutters up. The house is all ready. So this is sort of the last piece of the puzzle.”
Others weren’t taking any chances after Helene.
On Anna Marie Island along the southern edge of Tampa Bay, Evan Purcell packed up his father’s ashes and was trying to catch his nine-year-old cat, McKenzie, as he prepared to leave Tuesday. Helene left him with thousands of dollars in damage when his home flooded. He feared Milton might take the rest.
“I’m still in shock over the first one and here comes round two,” Purcell said. “I just have a pit in my stomach about this one.”
State and local governments scrambled ahead of the storm to remove piles of debris left in Helene’s wake, fearing that the oncoming hurricane would turn loose wreckage into flying missiles.
Governor Ron DeSantis said the state deployed more than 300 dump trucks that had removed 1300 loads of debris.
In Mexico, authorities in the state of Yucatan reported minor damage from Milton as it passed just offshore.
Power lines, light poles and trees were knocked down near the coast, and some small thatched-roof structures were destroyed, Yucatan Governor Joaquín Díaz said.
He did not report any deaths or injuries.
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