Hurricane Milton has strengthened rapidly into a Category 5 hurricane on a path toward the US state of Florida, threatening the densely populated Tampa area with a potential direct hit and menacing the same stretch of coastline that was battered by Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago.
The centre of the storm could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay region, which has not endured a head-on hit by a hurricane in more than a century. Scientists expect the system to weaken slightly before landfall, though it is still forecast to hit as a Category 3 hurricane or higher.
The storm could retain hurricane strength as it churns across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains.
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“This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said at a news conference.
“If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100 per cent of the time.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said that it was imperative that debris from Helene be cleared ahead of Milton’s arrival so the pieces cannot become projectiles.
As evacuation orders were issued, forecasters warned of a possible eight to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 metres) in Tampa Bay and said flash and river flooding could result from five to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimetres) of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38cm) in places. The Tampa metro area has a population of more than 3.2 million people.
“It’s a huge population. It’s very exposed, very inexperienced, and that’s a losing proposition,” MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel said. “I always thought Tampa would be the city to worry about most.”
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Much of Florida’s west coast was under hurricane and storm surge watches. Florida’s Lake Okeechobee, which often floods during intense storms, was also under a hurricane watch.
A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, which expected to get sideswiped.
The compact Milton intensified quickly Monday over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It had maximum sustained winds of 160 miles an hour (257km/hr), the National Hurricane Centre said. The storm’s centre was about 720 miles (1160km) southwest of Tampa at midday, moving east-southeast at nine miles an hour (15km/hr).
The Tampa Bay area is still rebounding from Helene and its powerful surge. Twelve people died there, with the worst damage along a string of barrier islands from St Petersburg to Clearwater.
In the race to clear away the aftermath from Helene, more than 300 vehicles gathered debris Sunday but encountered a locked landfill gate when they tried to drop it off. State troopers used a rope tied to a pickup truck and busted it open, DeSantis said.
“We don’t have time for bureaucracy and red tape,” DeSantis said.
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‘It’s going to be flying missiles’
Lifeguards in Pinellas County, on the peninsula that forms Tampa Bay, removed beach chairs and other items that could take flight in strong winds. Elsewhere, stoves, chairs, refrigerators and kitchen tables waited in heaps to be picked up.
Sarah Steslicki, who lives in Belleair Beach, said she was frustrated more debris had not been collected sooner.
“They’ve screwed around and haven’t picked the debris up, and now they’re scrambling to get it picked up,” Steslicki said Monday morning. “If this one does hit, it’s going to be flying missiles. Stuff’s going to be floating and flying in the air.”
Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, ordered evacuations for areas adjacent to Tampa Bay and for all mobile and manufactured homes by Tuesday night.
“Yes, this stinks. We know that, and it comes on the heels of where a lot of us are still recovering from Hurricane Helene,” Sheriff Chad Chronister said. “But if you safeguard your families, you will be alive.”
Reluctance to evacuate
Milton’s approach stirred memories of 2017’s Hurricane Irma, when about seven million people were urged to evacuate Florida in an exodus that jammed freeways and clogged gas stations. Some people who left vowed never to evacuate again.
By Monday morning, some gas stations in the Tampa area had already run out of gas. Fuel continued to arrive in Florida, and the state had amassed hundreds of thousands of gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel, with much more on the way, DeSantis said.
A steady stream of vehicles headed north on Interstate 75, the main highway on the west side of the peninsula, as residents heeded evacuation orders.
Even though Tanya Marunchak’s Belleair Beach home was flooded with more than four feet (1.2m) of water from Helene, she and her husband were unsure Monday morning if they should evacuate. She wanted to leave, but her husband thought their three-storey home was sturdy enough to withstand Milton.
“We lost all our cars, all our furniture. The first floor was completely destroyed,” Marunchak said. “This is the oddest weather predicament that there has ever been.”
If residents do not evacuate, it could put first responders in jeopardy or make rescues impossible: “If you remain there, you could die, and my men and women could die trying to rescue you,” Hillsborough Fire Rescue Chief Jason Dougherty said.
Why did Milton intensify so fast?
Milton’s wind speed increased by 92 miles an hour (148km/hr) in 24 hours — a pace that trails only those of Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007. One reason Milton strengthened so rapidly is its small “pinhole eye,” just like Wilma’s, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.
The storm likely go through what’s called an eye wall replacement cycle, a natural process that forms a new eye and expands the storm in size but weakens its wind speeds, Klotzbach said.
The Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm right now, so “the fuel is just there,” and Milton probably went over an extra-warm eddy that helped goose it further, said University of Albany hurricane scientist Kristen Corbosiero.
The last hurricane to be a Category 5 at landfall in the mainland US was Michael in 2018.
Widespread cancellations in Florida
With the storm approaching, school activities were called off in Pinellas County, home to St Petersburg, and schools were being converted into shelters. Officials in Tampa made city garages available to residents hoping to protect their cars from flooding.
Walt Disney World said it was operating normally for the time being. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers planned to move operations to the New Orleans area for the rest of the week leading to Sunday’s NFL game against the Saints, and the Tampa Bay Lightning’s NHL game Monday against the Nashville Predators was cancelled.
All road tolls were suspended in west-central Florida. The St Pete-Clearwater International Airport said it would close after the last flight Tuesday, and Tampa International Airport said it planned to halt airline and cargo flights starting Tuesday.
Orlando International Airport, the nation’s seventh busiest and Florida’s most heavily trafficked airport, said it would stop operations Wednesday morning.
It has been two decades since so many storms crisscrossed Florida in such a short period of time. In 2004, an unprecedented five storms struck Florida within six weeks, including three hurricanes that pummeled central Florida.
Other parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast are still recovering from storms from the past two years. The Fort Myers area in southwest Florida is still rebuilding from Hurricane Ian, which caused US$112 billion ($166 billion) in damage in 2022. Three hurricanes have thrashed Florida’s Big Bend region in just 13 months, including Helene.
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